State of the Market, March 26, ’09

Robert here. Although the lateral market in Asia continues to be very slow, as expected in the downturn, we have seen a substantial upturn in interviewing of our candidates in Asia recently. For example, currently the following of my associate candidates are actively interviewing in Asia, each at multiple firms (there are others with single interviews):

*mid-level cap markets associate (Mandarin fluent) from HK interviewing in HK
senior cap markets associate from HK (Mandarin fluent) interviewing in HK
*mid-level PE / M&A associate from US interviewing in HK
*mid-level M&A associate from US (Mandarin fluent) interviewing in HK
*senior M&A / cap markets associate from US (Korean fluent) interviewing in HK
*mid-level project finance associate from US (Korean fluent) interviewing in Tokyo
*mid-level M&A associate from US (Mandarin fluent) interviewing in HK
*mid-level M&A associate from HK (Mandarin fluent) interviewing in Beijing
*mid-level IP associate from US (Mandarin fluent) interviewing in Beijing
*mid-level project finance associate from US interviewing in Abu Dhabi
*junior M&A associate from US (Mandarin fluent) interviewing in Beijing and HK
*mid-level funds associate from US interviewing in HK

It is important to note that firms are moving slow to give offers so the interviewing activity above is not indicative of offers coming soon for each (as it was during the recent boom times for lateral hiring). However, I am getting the impression that some firms are ready to give offers after some months of delay in filling openings. I do think that all the above associates will be placed in Asia in ’09.

Also, firms continue to be as selective as ever and each of the above associates are extremely well qualified, all coming from top practices and top law schools, with excellent grades.

We are excited about the interview activity, though, as just two weeks ago the above list would have been only 1/3 as long. Some candidates who have been on hold since as far back as October are now being interviewed.

We also have a number of partner candidates interviewing in HK / China, in practice areas such as project finance, M&A and IP.

Going forward over the next several months I foresee continued interviewing and hiring in HK / China of very impressive M&A mid-level to senior associates (M&A, especially PE downstream work is relatively busy compared to other transactional areas in HK / China), as well as a handful of interviewing and hiring of cap markets and IP focused mid-level and senior associates.

Keep in mind that a number of the most prestigious US firms in Asia have hiring freezes that are not going to thaw out any time too soon (at least until summer and likely longer), due to very strong cap markets practices that are down now (and that market will likely not pick up until some point in ’10, unlike M&A that will likely turn around much quicker).

Some firms that are in hiring freeze have asked us to send them top flight candidates in particular practice areas in order for them to have preliminary and informational conversations with such persons, whereas other frozen firms are not taking that approach.

At many firms in Asia partners are still having some difficulty getting green lights from home offices on hires they would like / need to make. This is one reason why offers come slower. Further, unlike in a hot lateral market, firms are not worried too much about losing a great candidate to another firm because there are many great candidates on the market to choose from. This is one reason why even when China market picks up substantially (could happen as soon as 2nd half ’09, but likely late ’09 to early ’10) (other Asia markets will likely be slower to rebound), firms will still move slow to make hires, as there will still be an overflow of candidates on the market until the US economy picks up substantially (likely after China). Also, until IPO work picks up substantially in China, a substantial number of top US firms in HK / China will continue to be overstaffed an on hiring freeze (except for critical hires needed). Things will be most difficult for junior US associate laterals because most US and British firms in Asia would rather try and figure out how to put their current junior cap markets associates to work (even if it means a re-tool) than hire new juniors (even if practice fit is better with potential lateral hire).

Next week, I will go over some recent developments in M&A that have many of us in the HK / China market optimistic.